Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates edged down yesterday. And conventional loans today start at 2.75% (2.75% APR) for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.
A fall seemed unlikely yesterday morning. But, during the day, President Donald Trump said he was canceling talks to agree on a new stimulus package. And the hope of such a package was one of the things that supported investor optimism.
Find and lock in a low rate (December 29, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||2.75%||2.75%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2.625%||2.625%||Unchanged|
|5-year conventional MRA||3%||2,743%||Unchanged|
|30-year fixed FHA||2.25%||3.226%||Unchanged|
|15-year fixed FHA||2.25%||3,191%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3,239%||Unchanged|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||3,188%||3.369%||Unchanged|
|15-year fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|ARM VA 5 years||2.5%||2,419%||Unchanged|
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.
Find and lock in a low rate (December 29, 2021)
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
The uncertainty weighing on the markets was seen in high definition yesterday.
The Dow has advanced well, posting significant gains. Then the president tweeted that he was canceling talks with the Speaker of the House on a stimulus package. And the index fell 600 points. It closed the day lower at 375.88.
The president later said he would be ready to sign a “lean” stimulus bill. And that caused a rebound in the markets this morning.
We may well see more of this type of volatility by election day – and possibly after, if the outcome is challenged.
Delivering the news continues to be bad for the economy and the markets, which could lead to mortgage rates falling, possibly to a new low.
But volatility works both ways. And there is a real risk that these rates will increase.
Do you have the stomach for such a ride? If not, you might want to lock in the next rate cut appreciably (assuming there’s a next time before you have to close).
But, if you like betting, you can buckle up and hope for some great rewards. Just recognize the risks.
In the meantime, my personal recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing seven days
- LOCK if closing 15 days
- FLOAT if closing 30 days
- FLOAT if closing 45 days
- FLOAT if closing 60 days
But, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So be guided by your personal risk tolerance.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here is the inventory this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday morning, was:
- the 10-year Treasury bill yield increased from 0.78% to 0.77%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
- Main stock market indices were higher at the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
- Oil price dipped to $ 39.80 from $ 40.70 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
- Gold price fell to $ 1,888 from $ 1,924 an ounce. (Wrong for mortgage rates *.) In general, it is better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates.
- CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index fell to 46 from 53 out of 100 possible points. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or a few cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
So use the markets only as a rough guide. They have to be unusually strong (rates are likely to rise) or low (they might fall) to build on them. Today they are looking worse for mortgage rates. Investors may have been encouraged by the president’s tweets during the evening that a “lean” stimulus may still be possible. Or they can ignore the whole problem, relying on a stimulus after the election.
Find and lock in a low rate (December 29, 2021)
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here are some things you should know:
- The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (at least $ 1,000 billion; some say close to $ 2,000 billion) are expected to put continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. So expect both short-term increases and decreases. And read “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why“if you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
- When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
- In times of high demand, lenders may increase rates in order to manage their workflow. Neither the markets nor the Fed can help when this happens
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?
Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. A new all-time low was set at the start of August and we have moved closer to others since. Still, a new one remains a real possibility.
But a new low is far from certain. Indeed, some recent market movements suggest that this could be a solution. And those limited hikes could push rates higher, at least until the election and possibly beyond.
It all depends on countless variables, most of which are unknowable. So don’t listen to anyone who claims to be able to predict with certainty where mortgage rates will go next.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing industry and businesses. mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the final quarter of 2020 (Q4 / 20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21 and Q3 / 21).
Note that Fannie’s (released September 15) and MBAs (September 21) are updated monthly. However, Freddie’s is now published quarterly. The last one was released on June 8, and the next was, presumably, due in September.
But, on the morning of October 7, there is still no sign of it. So Freddie feels stale. Has anyone thought of turning off the lights?
The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:
|Forecaster||T4 / 20||T1 / 21||T2 / 21||Q3 / 21|
Expectations therefore vary considerably. You pay your money …
Find your lowest rate today
Everyone – from federal regulators to personal finance gurus – agrees that it’s important to shop around for your new mortgage or refinance. You could save thousands of dollars in just a few years by getting quotes from multiple lenders. And more, if you hold onto your mortgage for a long time or have a large loan.
But rarely have you had more to gain from shopping than now. The mortgage market is currently very messy. And some lenders offer significantly lower rates than others. Worse yet, some make it harder to get a mortgage if you want cash refinancing, an investment property loan, a jumbo loan, or if your credit score is damaged.
So start shopping around for your new mortgage or refinance soon. You are more likely to find a good deal on the type of loan you want if you extend your net widely.
Show me today’s rates (December 29, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.
The information on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an advertisement for any products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, its parent company or its affiliates.