Mortgage and refinancing rate today, February 2

Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates edged down yesterday, but only by the smallest measurable amount. However, they are only a little higher than the all-time low set last Wednesday.

So far this morning it seems that mortgage rates could go up today. But, as always, the markets can turn in a hurry.

Find and lock in a low rate (December 29, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate APR* Change
Conventional 30 years fixed 2,745% 2,745% Unchanged
Conventional 15 years fixed 2.313% 2.313% Unchanged
5-year conventional MRA 3% 2,743% Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA 2.495% 3.473% Unchanged
15-year fixed FHA 2,438% 3.38% Unchanged
5 years ARM FHA 2.5% 3.226% Unchanged
Fixed VA over 30 years 2.3% 2.472% Unchanged
15-year fixed VA 2,188% 2.508% Unchanged
ARM VA 5 years 2.5% 2.406% Unchanged
Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.

Find and lock in a low rate (December 29, 2021)


COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders change rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest information on the impact of the coronavirus on your home loan, Click here.

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Should you lock in your mortgage rate or float it? Chances are, your choice won’t make much of a difference. Because sharp ups and downs seem to be old-fashioned.

Of course, there can never be any guarantee that this happy situation will continue. But personally, I don’t see anything on the horizon that suggests it’s likely to come to a screeching halt without warning.

So it may well be that you can continue to float without too much danger. But the flip side is that you probably won’t benefit much from it. So, is it worth the small risk of a sudden rise?

At times like this my instinct is to be careful. My personal rate foreclosure recommendations are therefore:

  • LOCK if closing seven days
  • LOCK if closing 15 days
  • LOCK if closing 30 days
  • FLOAT if closing 45 days
  • FLOAT if closing 60 days

Yet, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday morning, was:

  • the 10-year Treasury bill yield rose to 1.11% from 1.08%. (Bad for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields on Treasury bonds, although less recently
  • Main stock market indices were higher at the opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The reverse happens when the indices are lower
  • Oil price jumped to $ 55.07 from $ 52.99 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates * because energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity.)
  • Gold price fell to $ 1,834 from $ 1,867 per ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Soared to 56 from 37 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. The Fed is now a big player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to go up) or weak (they might go down) to build on them. But, with that caveat, so far mortgage rates are expected to rise today.

Find and lock in a low rate (December 29, 2021)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

  1. The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (well above $ 1 trillion) are expected to put continued downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work wonders all the time. And read “For once, the Fed is affecting mortgage rates. here’s why“if you want to understand this aspect of what is happening
  2. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  3. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
  4. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
  5. When rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
  6. Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher following a regulatory change

So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Today And so on

I am expect mortgage rates to rise today. But, as always, that could change as the day goes on.

There is little on the calendar that is likely to move rates today. So any change is likely to be due to changes in investor sentiment.

And this is currently being shaken by events in Washington DC Will the President get a $ 1.9 trillion pandemic contingency plan? Or will the senators who proposed a much smaller package win? Upon hearing the announcement, expect the markets to react.

For more information on my broader thinking, read our latest weekend edition, which is published every Saturday shortly after 10 a.m. (ET).

Recently

Over the past few months, the overall trend in mortgage rates is clearly downward. And a new all-time weekly low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly high was on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But the rates then went up. And in Freddie’s Jan.21 report, that weekly average was 2.77%.

They had fallen only 2.73% in the January 28 report. But that’s because the study’s methodology largely excludes movements every Wednesday – and that’s when this week’s big drop occurred.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing industry and businesses. mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).

Fannie’s were released on January 15, Freddie on January 14, and MBAs on January 20. The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages:

Forecaster T1 / 21 T2 / 21 Q3 / 21 T4 / 21
Fannie mae 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%
Freddie mac 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
MBA 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%

But, given so many unknowables, the current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a gap that widens as the year progresses.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders have been frightened by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to the more vanilla mortgages and refinances.

But others remain courageous. And you can still probably find the cash refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. Just shop more widely.

But, of course, you should be doing a lot of comparisons, whatever type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said:

Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars for the duration of your loan.

Show me today’s rates (December 29, 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from several lending partners every day. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.

The information on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an advertisement for any products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, its parent company or its affiliates.